Yes, you read that headline correctly, eight million jobs will be created over the next 5 years! Even though employers are already struggling to attract new talent, more and more new roles are being created every minute. However, a new study from CareerBuilder finds that there is a hollowing effect in the labor market where high-wage and low-wage job growth is eclipsing middle-wage job growth by a significant margin.
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Based on extensive analysis of historical and current labor market trends, the U.S. is expected to add 8,310,003 jobs (5.08% growth) from 2018 to 2023—only one-fourth of these jobs will fall within the middle-wage category. Factored into the total job growth is an expected loss of 369,879 jobs over the same time period, with middle-wage occupations experiencing the majority of the decline. Key findings from this study are highlighted below:
- High-wage and low-wage occupations are expected to have the highest net job growth from 2018 to 2023 at 5.71% and 5.69%, respectively. Middle-wage employment will grow at 3.83%.
- High-wage and low-wage occupations will each add 1 million more jobs than middle-wage occupations from 2018 to 2023. High-wage occupations are expected to add 3,117,284 jobs and low-wage occupations are expected to add 3,098,476 jobs compared to 2,094,243 new jobs for middle-wage occupations.
- A total of 121 occupations will experience a decline in jobs between 2018 and 2023—75 of those occupations are middle-wage. Across the 121 total occupations, 369,879 jobs will be lost with middle-wage occupations accounting for 58% of the loss.
- STEM-related occupations (science, technology, engineering, and math) will continue to dominate fast-growing occupations.
For the purposes of this study, CareerBuilder defined low-wage jobs as those that pay $14.17 or less per hour; middle-wage jobs as $14.18 to $23.59 per hour; and high-wage jobs as $23.60 or more per hour.
The analysis is based on data from Emsi and focuses on 774 occupations that are classified by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. It includes data for workers who are employed with organizations and those who are self-employed.
“Technology innovation is moving at an unprecedented rate and is rapidly redefining the occupations and skills required in the job market,” said Irina Novoselsky, CEO of CareerBuilder. “Most of the fastest-growing occupations have a technical component to them. Employers will need to play a greater role in providing competency-based training to the workforce. At the same time, workers across all job levels will need to continually pursue opportunities to upskill in order to maneuver around accelerated shifts in labor demand. This is a particularly pressing issue for middle-wage workers who are at greater risk for becoming displaced and workers in general who want to move up into better-paying jobs.”
CareerBuilder compiled a list of examples for each wage category, which can help employers and workers figure out what industries will be hiring more workers:
| Fast-Growing Occupations By Wage Category | 2018 Jobs | 2023 Jobs | Jobs Added 2018 to 2023 | 2018 to 2023 % Change | Median Hourly Earnings |
| High Wage | |||||
| Registered Nurses | 3,040,884 | 3,295,931 | 255,047 | 8.39% | $33.55 |
| Software Developers/Applications | 921,232 | 1,064,698 | 143,466 | 15.57% | $48.49 |
| Postsecondary Teachers | 1,530,589 | 1,641,544 | 110,955 | 7.25% | $33.53 |
| Accountants and Auditors | 1,428,748 | 1,514,827 | 86,079 | 6.02% | $32.33 |
| Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists | 660,150 | 743,337 | 83,187 | 12.6% | $30.21 |
| Computer User Support Specialists | 722,078 | 776,122 | 54,044 | 7.48% | $24.16 |
| Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters | 508,702 | 552,327 | 43,625 | 8.58% | $23.72 |
| Middle Wage | |||||
| Customer Service Representatives | 2,864,930 | 2,985,603 | 120,673 | 4.21% | $15.88 |
| Medical Assistants | 705,056 | 807,330 | 102,274 | 14.51% | $15.62 |
| Construction Laborers | 1,404,290 | 1,496,472 | 92,182 | 6.56% | $14.73 |
| Maintenance and Repair Workers, General | 1,552,441 | 1,636,372 | 83,931 | 5.41% | $18.08 |
| Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses | 753,975 | 809,320 | 55,345 | 7.34% | $21.56 |
| Light Truck or Delivery Service Drivers | 954,204 | 1,003,041 | 48,837 | 5.12% | $15.04 |
| Billing and Posting Clerks | 515,706 | 559,989 | 44,283 | 8.59% | $17.85 |
| Low Wage | |||||
| Home Health Aides | 926,500 | 1,134,232 | 207,732 | 22.42% | $11.17 |
| Waiters and Waitresses | 2,666,275 | 2,812,556 | 146,281 | 5.49% | $10.01 |
| Retail Salespersons | 4,574,115 | 4,682,344 | 108,229 | 2.37% | $11.29 |
| Cooks, Restaurant | 1,349,883 | 1,450,547 | 100,664 | 7.46% | $12.06 |
| Nursing Assistants | 1,522,723 | 1,619,107 | 96,384 | 6.33% | $13.23 |
| Security Guards | 1,210,962 | 1,272,926 | 61,964 | 5.12% | $12.97 |
| Receptionists and Information Clerks | 1,104,928 | 1,174,389 | 69,461 | 6.29% | $13.70 |