New Data Shows Demand for Recruiters is Down, But Still Higher Than Prepandemic

Recruiters everywhere are feeling a bit anxious — and it’s no wonder. Every day seems to bring more news of hiring freezes, rescinded job offers, layoffs, and a looming recession. As the labor market cools, demand for recruiters is waning. In fact, new LinkedIn data shows recruiter job openings have been sharply declining since January 2022, though openings remain significantly higher than they were before the pandemic.

Many experts predict continued economic turbulence ahead — signaling that hiring will continue to slow into 2023. Let’s take a closer look at the data and what you can do to mitigate disruption to your career and organization during a hiring slowdown. 

Recruiters are seeing a dramatic shift in job openings

Recruiter job postings spiked in 2021, as the Great Resignation was in full swing. Companies needed to quickly scale their recruiting teams to meet intense hiring demands. Globally, LinkedIn data shows recruiter job openings reached a three-year high in January 2022 — increasing 4.35x over January 2019.

But inflation also spiked in 2021, leading to increased whispers of economic uncertainty. Companies slowed hiring and recruiter job postings fell 51% between January and September 2022. This drop-off may feel particularly pronounced following a long period of sustained growth and high demand for recruiters — especially as hiring freezes and layoffs are becoming more common.

This lower demand for recruiters was found across a sampling of countries, though the drop-off varied significantly. For example, job postings for recruiters fell 60% since January in the United States but only 10% in India. 

These trends reflect the economic climate in each region. India is projected to have a 7% growth rate for 2022, more than twice as much as the global growth rate. The country’s 2023 growth is predicted to be somewhere between 4.8% and 5.7%. Buoyed by local demand, public investments, and credit guarantees to small and medium-sized businesses, India recently surpassed the United Kingdom to become the world’s fifth-largest economy. By contrast, the U.S. growth rate is projected to be 1.8% in 2022 and 0.5% in 2023, while the eurozone growth rate is expected to be 3.3% in 2022 and 0.5% in 2023.

Hiring demand always comes back — as does demand for recruiters

While LinkedIn data shows recruiter job openings are still more than 2x higher than they were in January 2019, the downward trend seems likely to continue into 2023. And, as the talent acquisition function often serves as a bellwether for hiring overall, recruiters may find themselves with fewer and fewer job requisitions to fill. 

History shows that hiring slowdowns are typically short-lived. Recessions tend to happen every six to 10 years and last about nine months. But nobody knows for sure when a recession is coming, how deep it will be, or how long it will last. Hiring may resume at any time — but only if your team has the recruiting talent it needs to scale up again. 

Forward-thinking organizations will redeploy their talent teams to complete other proactive projects so their recruiting function will be available once hiring resumes. For example:

1. Completing strategic projects to improve the talent acquisition function. Take advantage of a hiring slowdown to complete projects that will make your recruiting team more effective and efficient. For example, overhaul your job descriptions and careers site to attract and convert more qualified applicants. Develop structured interview guides and scorecards to help ensure a fair, consistent hiring process. And revisit your recruitment technology to ensure each solution meets your needs and integrates with the rest of your tech stack.
2. Helping with HR projects to improve the employee experience. So much has changed in the world of work and your HR team may have a backlog of projects your recruiters could help out with. For example, adjusting salary bands to adjust for wage growth ahead of your next review cycle. Developing a career pathway program to encourage internal mobility and help employees understand opportunities for advancement. And conducting stay interviews to gather employee feedback and boost retention. 
3. Filling in for other teams across the company. Hiring freezes or layoffs may mean that other teams within your organization could use some help. Recruiters have many transferable skills and often have experience in other job functions, making them strong internal candidates who can get quickly up-to-speed in a new role. For example, recruiters often come from sales, operations, and administrative roles and can be redeployed back into those positions if the need arises.

Final thoughts: The job market is cyclical

The past few years have seen a tumultuous job market, to say the least. After relatively steady demand for recruiters through 2019, there was a notable drop when COVID-19 was declared a global pandemic in March 2020. Hiring for recruiters stayed low for the remainder of 2020 before increasing dramatically in 2021 — then decreasing dramatically in 2022.

We’ve seen these rapid hiring increases and sharp declines time and again. Job growth always comes back and with it, the demand for recruiters. As the economy improves, companies will ramp up hiring and talent acquisition professionals will begin to see more job opportunities arise.

The economy and the talent landscape are cyclical and it’s simply a matter of time before they shift again. We know that doesn’t make things any easier right now, but know that hiring will eventually rebound and that you’ll likely be among the first to know when it does.

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