Graham Glass is the founder & CEO of CYPHER LEARNING, which specializes in providing learning platforms for organizations around the world.
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The U.S. unemployment rate has tumbled, by most measures, to lows not seen since the late 1960s. In fact, over the last 20 years, we haven’t seen so high a proportion (paywall) of Americans aged 25 to 54 in the workforce or seeking jobs. So, talent crisis? What crisis?
But, these robust statistics belie a problem we’re not confronting. While we’re close to full employment, skills gaps are widening in sector after sector. According to McKinsey, 87% of companies see these gaps, and they're projected to grow worse.
The yawning mismatch between the labor market’s critical unmet needs and millions of untrained, underskilled people who could be productive workers is a crisis, yes. But it’s also an incredible opportunity for reform that turbocharges American productivity, business fortunes and worker satisfaction all in one go.
Today's Stealth Workforce Crisis
Workplace strategists, sociologists and labor economists all know it: Millions of American workers (predominantly men) aren’t working. The U.S. Labor Department categorizes them as NILFs—not in the labor force. We’ve never before seen a period when young and middle-aged men were less likely to be working. One economist says 11% of our prime-aged male workers count as NILFs. If that’s even close to accurate, our real underemployment situation constitutes a stealth crisis.
In an article for The Bulwark, labor scholar Brent Orrell wrote, “If our blistering hot labor market, rapid wage increases, and growth in traditionally male-dominated occupations are not enough to coax men back into the workforce, we are going to need to start looking closely at... how reforms might encourage those who can work to do so.” We have numerous tools at our disposal to move forward and activate the NILFs; all we lack is vision and consensus.
What Contributes To The NILF Crisis
There’s a fair amount of debate about why people decommission themselves from work. A 2016 labor report from the Obama administration suggested that “technology, automation, and globalization” reduced labor demand. (Of course, they also create new opportunities; in the United States, we see 3.5 million unfilled positions in cybersecurity alone.) More recently, the Institute for Family Studies pointed out job vacancies are at an all-time high and argued physical and mental health issues are what keep the NILF bloc growing.
Finally, as a working society, we’re not competent enough when it comes to individualized outreach, training and upskilling. Personal learning styles vary. Surely some people on the labor sidelines lack prerequisites for today’s jobs, can't catch up once they fall behind or grow frustrated with their situation and tap out. Historically, this has particularly affected neurodivergent, older or language-challenged workers.
How many NILFs could we usher into the workforce simply by adopting a new language for learning?
A New, Personalized Approach To Workplace Recruitment
In a 2017 study, McKinsey predicted coping with imminent trends in workplace evolution—chiefly automation—would require a large-scale, intentional approach. The study predicted key factors would be sustained investments in training models and programs, income support for employees and public-private sector collaboration. At the time, the United States spent just 0.1% of its GDP on policies like job search assistance and training. Considering we're well into the 2020s, we’re overdue for change.
At a macro, systemic level, public policy changes and private-sector initiatives can and should create new job opportunities appropriate for sidelined NILFs. For example, reformed community college and training resources can address specifically identified skills gaps, which would serve workers and employers alike.
At an individual level, to engage one deactivated worker at a time, companies can consider new AI technologies. In training environments, AI-enhanced learning platforms can perform custom data compilation and synthesis in response to individual learner agendas. Gamification within these platforms can also keep learners invested. AI plus data and analytics can help development teams assess each learner's progress, then speed up or slow down their activities in response.
What might that mean for our NILF population? New possibilities. People who exited the workforce intimidated by evolving job requirements or because of dull or incomprehensible training, might feel invited to return. Older workers struggling to keep up with new competencies have a better chance of remaining in jobs they want. People with health issues or who need flexibility from employers are more easily accommodated.
We’re better equipped today to connect underqualified or differently abled NILFs with job opportunities. And for employers, new tech can support an organizational culture of continuous learning that fosters productivity and competitive advantages.
Time Is Of The Essence
For both employers and workers, a big clock is ticking. Individual credentials and competencies that mattered a few short years ago will soon make less difference. If recent skills trends hold strong, around 30% of the skills needed today likely won't matter in the years ahead.
Upskilling is literally imperative. Let’s unleash it with policy reforms, personalized outreach and more attractive, compelling training propositions.
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